A study published in the journal PNAS by scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) in Washington, D.C., and the Max Planck Institute in Munich, Germany, has revealed a climate-driven collapse: for the first time in four decades, the ocean engine of the Gulf of Panama ground to a halt.
Typically, between December and April, northern trade winds push surface waters, allowing deeper, colder currents to rise and bring nutrients to the surface. This natural fertilization process sustains regional fisheries in Panama and protects coral reefs from extreme heat. However, in 2025, the winds lost their strength, and this cycle failed to occur.
Without the upwelling of cold water, nutrients remained trapped on the seafloor, leading to a decline in marine animal populations and threatening coastal communities that depend on fishing. This event underscores the vulnerability of tropical ecosystems to climate change.
Researchers warn that this previously unknown pattern could recur every 40 years, damaging ecosystems and altering marine life in the region. Ralf Schiebel from the Max Planck Institute explained: “For the first time, we have observed how changes in an atmospheric and oceanic circulation system surpass a threshold, leading to reduced biological production. The lack of upwelling currents caused a failure in nutrient supply and, correspondingly, low algae growth, impacting marine food webs and leading to a decline in commercial fisheries.”
Gerald Haug, director of the Max Planck Institute’s Department of Climate Geochemistry, added: “It is too early to conclude that current warming of the climate and ocean could lead to reduced upwelling in the tropical eastern Pacific. However, the study highlights the growing vulnerability of tropical upwelling systems, which, despite their immense ecological and socioeconomic importance, remain poorly monitored.”